Two separate exploratory analyses. Reproducible calculations, not prospective or clinical validation.
Matched EDA prediction rows
Eight provinces · 2023–2025 evaluation
| Method | MAE / episodes |
|---|---|
| Persistence / last observed week | 45.088 |
| Trailing four-week mean | 46.673 |
| Random Forest + climate | 50.294 |
| Random Forest without climate | 52.763 |
| Previous-year same week | 71.954 |
Lower is better. A four-week-ahead target is one future week's count, not a four-week cumulative total. Training: 2019–2022.
Climate forest minus persistence MAE
5,000 resamples of 24 province-year sequences. The interval crosses zero; it is not an equivalence test or a prediction interval for future patients.
The evaluation years were inspected during development. Provinces and years may be correlated. No operational forecasting advantage has been demonstrated.
| Maximum retained interval | Piura median / days | Huancabamba median / days |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days | 3 | 5 |
| 60 days | 3 | 10 |
| 90 days | 3 | 15 |
| 180 days | 3 | 18 |
| 365 days | 3 | 19 |
These are differences between recorded symptom-onset and attendance dates. Thresholds are analytical choices, not clinically certified validity rules. The source dictionary does not establish an independently verified measure of first access to care.
The 0–90-day view retains 5,468 records in Piura and 249 in Huancabamba. Repeating the calculation under different cutoffs prevents the most striking single estimate from becoming the whole story.
The matched EDA models, metrics, bootstrap and descriptive reference curves run from bundled aggregate inputs. The core EDA input was rebuilt from the participant-supplied source workbook and matched all 3,344 rows. Regional date auditing requires the separately obtained case-level source, which is not distributed.
Map geometry and older contextual views remain archived source-derived extracts; a complete raw-file-to-every-screen pipeline is not claimed.
Reproducibility guide · Verification record · Model results CSV · Sensitivity results CSV